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Inflation fall may not ease household budgets

Budget management may still be a tough challenge for many households, despite more evidence that inflation is on the wane.

There is plenty of reason to think that the rate at which the cost of living increased last year will not be repeated in the next few months.

One reason is that it has been widely predicted by a range of experts, including the Bank of England, which said last year that consumer prices index inflation would spike at around five per cent and fall back.

So far, this appears to be happening as the 5.2 per cent rate seen in September dipped to five per cent in October and 4.8 per cent in November.

Another reason is that the impact of the VAT increase brought in a year ago will drop out of the system, meaning that when this month's figures come out it will show a fall purely because that hike has not been repeated.

And even the surge in energy prices may be in reverse, with EDF Energy becoming the first of the big six to cut prices when it announced a five per cent reduction in gas prices today (February 7th).

To add to all this, the British Retail Consortium/Nielsen shop price inflation figures for December revealed an annual figure of 1.7 per cent, down from two per cent in November and the lowest for 16 months.

But for those seeking to manage money as well as possible, lower inflation is still a problem. Last year saw prices rising faster than incomes and that was just for those lucky enough to get a pay rise - something some people working in the private sector and most of those in the public sector have had to do without.

This year, the cost of living may not increase by as much but it might still outstrip pay rises for those who get them. (And once again, many will not).

Official figures showed regular pay settlements including bonuses average just two per cent in the three months to October, down from 2.3 per cent in September. This may indicate that as inflation declines, so will increases in remuneration.

If so, using a budget planner to ensure money is spent carefully and waste is eliminated will be as important as ever. Finding ways to cut the cash spent on each area of activity where possible will also be important.

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